Economics

Forecast for US Recession Within Year Hits 100% in Blow to Biden

Bloomberg Economics sees near certainty downturn will start
Tightening conditions, inflation, hawkish Fed weigh on outlook

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Significant US Recession ‘Not Inevitable,' Says Raimondo

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By Josh Wingrove

October 17, 2022 at 2:02 PM UTC

This article is for subscribers only.

A US recession is effectively certain in the next 12 months in new Bloomberg Economics model projections, a blow to President Joe Biden’s economic messaging ahead of the November midterms.

The latest recession probability models by Bloomberg economists Anna Wong and Eliza Winger forecast a higher recession probability across all timeframes, with the 12-month estimate of a downturn by October 2023 hitting 100%, up from 65% for the comparable period in the previous update.

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